Use Your Own Judgment -- Really!

Judgment, writes Schumpeter, the business columnist for The Economist, “is too often missing from leadership studies.” The reason is that it is a topic too hard to quantify with metrics but as the Schumpeter column notes, “[J]udgment is what matters most.” Judgment serves as a kind of equilibrium device that prevents us from getting too carried away with our ideas or ourselves.

Lack of judgment sadly is not only missing from leadership literature, it is also missing from our organizations. The reasons are plentiful but it may come down to a combination of two factors: one, as Schumpeter cited, the desire to be “scientific” (and quantifiable); and two, the failure of executive to trust their own instincts. The former is understandable because management requires individuals to make decisions based on empirical data rather than their gut reactions. As a result, managers learn to favor data over instinct.

Broadly speaking, arguing with the facts makes good sense. Few managers will get in trouble by arguing a business case. It is what they are taught in school as well as schooled by their supervisors as they rise through the ranks. The problem is that too much reliance on the facts can lead one up a blind alley, especially when the assumptions that generate the facts are faulty.

So what can organizations do to promote judgment? The most obvious measure would be to challenge people to think for themselves rather then recite facts. As Colin Powell once noted, “Experts often possess more data than judgment.” Sadly, as Secretary of State in the George W. Bush administration, Powell learned the limitations of data when he was persuaded to argue the case to the United Nations for the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

With the benefit of hindsight, we know now that while intelligence sources argued that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction that data was based upon faulty assumptions. The source of the information we learned later came from an Iraqi informant, code named “Curveball,” who was feeding Western intelligence false information.

Judgment is the ability to discern fact from fiction, but moreover it is the ability to look at a situation not simply as a series of data points but to put those data points into context. For example, when developing a business case, a manager needs to evaluate customer needs against a myriad of factors that include customer demand, competition and the economic climate. A look at the data may say one thing, but a conversation with a customer says another. That is, your company could develop a product but customers may not be interested in it because they are happy with what they have and see no need to switch vendors.

Judgment then becomes the lever that a manager employs to argue for making investments in a new product that provide a noticeable difference for consumers. Or conversely judgment becomes the tool that same manager, or his more senior manager, uses to argue against investing in the new product because the investment will not be worth it.

Judgment is critical for success so managers need to trust their instincts as well as well as the facts they evaluate.

John Baldoni,